Predicting the impact of present and future human land-use on the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract

An ecohydrologic model, verified against field data, suggests that land-use has contributed to degradation of the health of the Great Barrier Reef and to an increased frequency and intensity of crown-of-thorns starfish infestations. The model also predicts that the health of the Great Barrier Reef will significantly worsen by the year 2050 as a result of global warming. However, the model also suggests that much-improved land-use practices will enable some regions of the Great Barrier Reef to recover, even with global warming. Finally, the model suggests that, if global warming proceeds unchecked, biological adaptation is necessary to avoid a collapse of the Great Barrier Reef health by the year 2100.