Seasonal climate forecasts to enhance decision-making across the sugar industry value chain

Abstract

Climate is a key driver of sugar systems. Many decisions and forward planning activities within the sugar industry are made with the anticipation of 'usual' climate conditions. When climate conditions vary from 'average', contingency plans are often implemented and initial decisions and plans are revised. Advance knowledge of the likely climate can be beneficial for enhancing decision-making and forward planning for the sugar season. Case studies assessing the capability of the 5 phase Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) climate forecasting system to enhance decision making and forward planning for the farming, harvesting, milling and marketing sectors of the industry value chain in Australia are presented. The results indicate that the benefits from using climate forecasts based on the SOI phase system are dependent upon the lead-time and the event being forecasted.