Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

Abstract

This chapter is concerned with various events (crises; disasters; and changes in the structure of government, social organization or economic structure) that have the potential to disrupt established tourism flows, resulting in subsequent tourist activity that is very different from the trends forecast in either the overall level of activity or the pattern of flows, or both. The chapter explores strategies that may be employed to improve the effectiveness of forecasting in circumstances where there are few pre-existing indicators of factors that may adversely affect national tourism flows at some point in the future. Recent events in Indonesia are used as a case study to build the discussion. The chapter develops a conceptual framework that synthesizes the issues identified but does not attempt to develop a detailed alternative forecasting model; its purpose is to suggest a direction that may offer an alternative to supplement current forecasting methods. This chapter was originally published as a paper with the same title in Tourism Management (2003) 24(4), pp. 511-520.