Planning for uncertainty: disasters, social resilience and climate change

Abstract

Predictions of climate change suggest a future in which less climatic predictability and more disasters will impact upon an increasing and more vulnerable population (ISDR 2008, Barratt et al. 2009, Handmer et al. 1999, Prabhakar et al. 2009). The uncertainty of what may happen at a given location has resulted in prolific discussions about the notion of community resilience. This paper briefly reviews definitions of the concept of resilience in relation to disasters and climate change, the consequent difficulties concerning the development of appropriate indicators and the implications for current planning practices when developing adaptive capacity and resilience.