Research methodological issues in projecting China's feedgrains demand and supply

Abstract

It is increasingly recognised that any increase in future grain demand in China will be mainly that for feedgrains. Consequently, there has been increased research into China's feedgrain demand and supply. However, past studies have generated vastly discrepant projections for China's feedgrains demand and supply. Some of the projections have been proven to have deviated significantly from the true picture. Given that such projections are meant to guide future policy initiatives and market activities. their accuracy is important. Thus. it is imperative to rectify the causes responsible for such discrepancies and deviations in projections. This paper examines such causes. It also identifies factors that may affect future projections for China's feedgrains demand and supply. Finally, the paper proposes a research agenda, pointing out areas that require particular research efforts.